U.S. Elections - 3 Days!

U.S. Elections - 3 Days!

The U.S. Elections are a mere three days away. At the present time, Barack Obama has a pretty decent lead over John McCain in national polling. It's not a blowout - 50% for Barack Obama, 43% for John McCain and 7% are undecided.

It would, however, appear that Barack Obama does have a bit of an advantage over his opponant. He holds a lead in states once considered untouchable by a Democrat - Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado among the more impressive examples. He also holds leads in the key battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio (51% to 47% in each state). Perhaps most importantly, however, he holds big leads in states with a large number of Electoral votes. California's 55, New York's 31 and Illinois' 21 are a sure thing on Election night.

The really interesting examples are the 'Tossup' states. There are just four of them now. Montana shows a 48% to 44% lead for John McCain, while neighbour North Dakota is showing 45% to 43% in favour of Barack Obama.

In the Midwest, Missouri and Indiana are surprisingly close. These two 'red states' each flank the liberal bastion of Illinois, Barack Obama's home state. Illinois' influence seems to be spreading a little as Missouri is showing a mere 2 point lead for McCain in this 50% to 48% statistical dead heat. Indiana, a state whose northwestern corner contains part of the Chicago suburbs, is actually showing Obama ahead by a razor thin 1% with 46% of the vote as opposed to John McCain's 45%.

States which have recently begun to show a trend in either direction include Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. All four of these states have shown Barack Obama taking a small lead, but his lead is generally growing in all four of these states.

At this stage of the race, I am going to make a few predictions. I will not stand by these on 5 November, however this is my best guess as of this evening.

I foresee Barack Obama winning 26 states and 353 electoral votes, for what would amount to a pretty solid defeat of John McCain, who would take the remaining 185. Of the current close races, I see Obama taking Florida and Ohio, both of which helped George W Bush in 2000 and 2004. No Republican has ever taken the White House without Ohio. Also, the battleground of Pennsylvania will almost definitely go to Obama, although this swing state can never be taken for granted.

Of the four states that are toss-ups right now, I see all of them breaking for John McCain at this stage of the game. Missouri and Indiana are traditionally so red that I see a lot of "buyer's remorse" on election day, with a few of the wobblier supporters of Obama going home to the familiarity of the Republican Party. North Dakota and Montana are both mostly white and rural, a traditionally very strong Republican demographic west of the Mississippi, and I am hesitant to believe that either one will really cross over in this election.

All of that being said, all of this is pure speculation on my part based on some polls on the CNN and MSNBC websites. I'm not on the ground there, and honestly so much can change in three days in politics. I will be watching on Tuesday evening!