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ETA - That means back one hour, by the way.
02 November 2008
01 November 2008
U.S. Elections - 3 Days!
U.S. Elections - 3 Days!
The U.S. Elections are a mere three days away. At the present time, Barack Obama has a pretty decent lead over John McCain in national polling. It's not a blowout - 50% for Barack Obama, 43% for John McCain and 7% are undecided.
It would, however, appear that Barack Obama does have a bit of an advantage over his opponant. He holds a lead in states once considered untouchable by a Democrat - Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado among the more impressive examples. He also holds leads in the key battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio (51% to 47% in each state). Perhaps most importantly, however, he holds big leads in states with a large number of Electoral votes. California's 55, New York's 31 and Illinois' 21 are a sure thing on Election night.
The really interesting examples are the 'Tossup' states. There are just four of them now. Montana shows a 48% to 44% lead for John McCain, while neighbour North Dakota is showing 45% to 43% in favour of Barack Obama.
In the Midwest, Missouri and Indiana are surprisingly close. These two 'red states' each flank the liberal bastion of Illinois, Barack Obama's home state. Illinois' influence seems to be spreading a little as Missouri is showing a mere 2 point lead for McCain in this 50% to 48% statistical dead heat. Indiana, a state whose northwestern corner contains part of the Chicago suburbs, is actually showing Obama ahead by a razor thin 1% with 46% of the vote as opposed to John McCain's 45%.
States which have recently begun to show a trend in either direction include Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. All four of these states have shown Barack Obama taking a small lead, but his lead is generally growing in all four of these states.
At this stage of the race, I am going to make a few predictions. I will not stand by these on 5 November, however this is my best guess as of this evening.
I foresee Barack Obama winning 26 states and 353 electoral votes, for what would amount to a pretty solid defeat of John McCain, who would take the remaining 185. Of the current close races, I see Obama taking Florida and Ohio, both of which helped George W Bush in 2000 and 2004. No Republican has ever taken the White House without Ohio. Also, the battleground of Pennsylvania will almost definitely go to Obama, although this swing state can never be taken for granted.
Of the four states that are toss-ups right now, I see all of them breaking for John McCain at this stage of the game. Missouri and Indiana are traditionally so red that I see a lot of "buyer's remorse" on election day, with a few of the wobblier supporters of Obama going home to the familiarity of the Republican Party. North Dakota and Montana are both mostly white and rural, a traditionally very strong Republican demographic west of the Mississippi, and I am hesitant to believe that either one will really cross over in this election.
All of that being said, all of this is pure speculation on my part based on some polls on the CNN and MSNBC websites. I'm not on the ground there, and honestly so much can change in three days in politics. I will be watching on Tuesday evening!
The U.S. Elections are a mere three days away. At the present time, Barack Obama has a pretty decent lead over John McCain in national polling. It's not a blowout - 50% for Barack Obama, 43% for John McCain and 7% are undecided.
It would, however, appear that Barack Obama does have a bit of an advantage over his opponant. He holds a lead in states once considered untouchable by a Democrat - Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado among the more impressive examples. He also holds leads in the key battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio (51% to 47% in each state). Perhaps most importantly, however, he holds big leads in states with a large number of Electoral votes. California's 55, New York's 31 and Illinois' 21 are a sure thing on Election night.
The really interesting examples are the 'Tossup' states. There are just four of them now. Montana shows a 48% to 44% lead for John McCain, while neighbour North Dakota is showing 45% to 43% in favour of Barack Obama.
In the Midwest, Missouri and Indiana are surprisingly close. These two 'red states' each flank the liberal bastion of Illinois, Barack Obama's home state. Illinois' influence seems to be spreading a little as Missouri is showing a mere 2 point lead for McCain in this 50% to 48% statistical dead heat. Indiana, a state whose northwestern corner contains part of the Chicago suburbs, is actually showing Obama ahead by a razor thin 1% with 46% of the vote as opposed to John McCain's 45%.
States which have recently begun to show a trend in either direction include Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. All four of these states have shown Barack Obama taking a small lead, but his lead is generally growing in all four of these states.
At this stage of the race, I am going to make a few predictions. I will not stand by these on 5 November, however this is my best guess as of this evening.
I foresee Barack Obama winning 26 states and 353 electoral votes, for what would amount to a pretty solid defeat of John McCain, who would take the remaining 185. Of the current close races, I see Obama taking Florida and Ohio, both of which helped George W Bush in 2000 and 2004. No Republican has ever taken the White House without Ohio. Also, the battleground of Pennsylvania will almost definitely go to Obama, although this swing state can never be taken for granted.
Of the four states that are toss-ups right now, I see all of them breaking for John McCain at this stage of the game. Missouri and Indiana are traditionally so red that I see a lot of "buyer's remorse" on election day, with a few of the wobblier supporters of Obama going home to the familiarity of the Republican Party. North Dakota and Montana are both mostly white and rural, a traditionally very strong Republican demographic west of the Mississippi, and I am hesitant to believe that either one will really cross over in this election.
All of that being said, all of this is pure speculation on my part based on some polls on the CNN and MSNBC websites. I'm not on the ground there, and honestly so much can change in three days in politics. I will be watching on Tuesday evening!
Voting Age to be Lowered?
Stephen MacNeil, the leader of Nova Scotia's Liberal Party, has proposed lowering the voting age in this province to 16. Although I commend the effort to engage more of Nova Scotia's youth in the democratic process, I cannot support this proposal.
Voting is a responsibility to be taken very seriously. Your vote, my vote, and the vote of every citizen aged 18 or over, could potentially be the single vote that decides the political direction of our province or our nation for a four(ish) year period. At sixteen, I feel that the majority of people are simply not aware enough of the bigger picture to cast a properly considered vote. This is not meant to insult or slight the intelligence of the many very bright, well-informed and educated youth we are blessed to have in this province. It is simply meant to point out that most youth haven't had the exposure to the world to develop a responsible position on key issues.
At sixteen, youth are concerned less with the boardroom table or kitchen table than with the cafeteria table. They're acutely aware of issues affecting education, and possibly some other social issues. The awareness of your average 16 year old of economic theory, criminal justice policy, international trade issues and a whole host of other matters is limited. Very few will have experienced a punitive tax regime, personally witnessed justice gone wrong, or had their job exported to Mexico or China.
Now that I've explained why I believe our under 18s should remain excluded from the franchise, I'll explain what I believe we can do to enhance their participation. Nova Scotian schools have a woeful record of education in civics. We need to correct that. Nova Scotia's youth must be introduced to the political process early. They must have the vote explained to them, as a compulsory component of the curriculum, and not simply have it presented as a right, but as a duty and a condition of citizenship.
It's been more than a decade since I finished high school, and in that time I'm not sure how the curriculum has changed. When I was in school, however, I was lucky to have a fantastic Year 9 Social Studies teacher. He was a pioneer of the concept of mock elections and mock parliaments. In that year, over the course of four months, we had full campaigns, full debates, an election and a session of parliament. The issues were weighed and the systems explained to us. Of the members of that class who I still have contact with (about 20), every single one of us voted in this past federal election. That's a much better record than the average nationally (a mere 59% of Canadians bothered). That education was a complimentary aspect of the curriculum that he developed independently. I feel that all high school students should experience that kind democracy in action on a provincial (and national) scale.
Perhaps the best way to sum up my position is to say that no, I don't feel Nova Scotia's 16 and 17 year olds should have the vote. I do, however, feel that they should be thoroughly trained in the parliamentary democratic process at that age so as to prepare them for their future as responsible citizens.
Voting is a responsibility to be taken very seriously. Your vote, my vote, and the vote of every citizen aged 18 or over, could potentially be the single vote that decides the political direction of our province or our nation for a four(ish) year period. At sixteen, I feel that the majority of people are simply not aware enough of the bigger picture to cast a properly considered vote. This is not meant to insult or slight the intelligence of the many very bright, well-informed and educated youth we are blessed to have in this province. It is simply meant to point out that most youth haven't had the exposure to the world to develop a responsible position on key issues.
At sixteen, youth are concerned less with the boardroom table or kitchen table than with the cafeteria table. They're acutely aware of issues affecting education, and possibly some other social issues. The awareness of your average 16 year old of economic theory, criminal justice policy, international trade issues and a whole host of other matters is limited. Very few will have experienced a punitive tax regime, personally witnessed justice gone wrong, or had their job exported to Mexico or China.
Now that I've explained why I believe our under 18s should remain excluded from the franchise, I'll explain what I believe we can do to enhance their participation. Nova Scotian schools have a woeful record of education in civics. We need to correct that. Nova Scotia's youth must be introduced to the political process early. They must have the vote explained to them, as a compulsory component of the curriculum, and not simply have it presented as a right, but as a duty and a condition of citizenship.
It's been more than a decade since I finished high school, and in that time I'm not sure how the curriculum has changed. When I was in school, however, I was lucky to have a fantastic Year 9 Social Studies teacher. He was a pioneer of the concept of mock elections and mock parliaments. In that year, over the course of four months, we had full campaigns, full debates, an election and a session of parliament. The issues were weighed and the systems explained to us. Of the members of that class who I still have contact with (about 20), every single one of us voted in this past federal election. That's a much better record than the average nationally (a mere 59% of Canadians bothered). That education was a complimentary aspect of the curriculum that he developed independently. I feel that all high school students should experience that kind democracy in action on a provincial (and national) scale.
Perhaps the best way to sum up my position is to say that no, I don't feel Nova Scotia's 16 and 17 year olds should have the vote. I do, however, feel that they should be thoroughly trained in the parliamentary democratic process at that age so as to prepare them for their future as responsible citizens.
15 October 2008
Your Vote
Your Vote - Canada 2008
Yesterday's election results disappointed me. It's no secret that I am not the biggest fan of the Conservative Party, but their minority win is not what is bothering me. It's a minority, and there is room for diplomacy there. It's the shear number of Canadians who just didn't bother to vote. 41% of us couldn't take the time to do the responsible thing and vote.
That means that 41% of Canadians are in absolutely no position to complain about the government. If you didn't vote, I don't want to hear a single word from you about the economy, education funding, defence policy, government spending practises, foreign policy, trade issues or unemployment. If you didn't vote, you have no say.
I went to vote yesterday with three other people. It took the four of us less than 8 minutes to vote, including one who actually had to be registered at the polls. It's not a terribly demanding exercise. You show some ID, put an x on a ballot, and leave. It takes 30 seconds.
Canada needs to investigate three things to bring out the vote: Proportional Representation, Compulsory voting and Senate reform/abolition.
Proportional Representation would allocate seats according to the share of the overall popular vote each party received. There are formulae that also guarantee local representation and room for independents (see New Zealand's Mixed-Member proportional system).
Compulsory voting, as in Australia, would ensure that many more Canadians voted. Australian voter turnout rates are in the high 90s percentage wise, and Australia has one of the world's strongest democracies. Australia is probably the society with the most similarities to Canada on Earth, so an examination of this practise is worthwhile.
Senate reform is also essential, either through electing members or just getting rid of the chamber altogether. Canada's provinces all function democratically with unicameral legislatures, why should Parliament be any different? The current situation is wasteful and only provides a retirement home for the good old boys of the party in power.
Anyway, 41% of Canada's people have eschewed a responsibility of citizenship and should really examine their conscience. If you don't feel you need to vote, please pay for your doctor and give back your passport. Thanks.
Yesterday's election results disappointed me. It's no secret that I am not the biggest fan of the Conservative Party, but their minority win is not what is bothering me. It's a minority, and there is room for diplomacy there. It's the shear number of Canadians who just didn't bother to vote. 41% of us couldn't take the time to do the responsible thing and vote.
That means that 41% of Canadians are in absolutely no position to complain about the government. If you didn't vote, I don't want to hear a single word from you about the economy, education funding, defence policy, government spending practises, foreign policy, trade issues or unemployment. If you didn't vote, you have no say.
I went to vote yesterday with three other people. It took the four of us less than 8 minutes to vote, including one who actually had to be registered at the polls. It's not a terribly demanding exercise. You show some ID, put an x on a ballot, and leave. It takes 30 seconds.
Canada needs to investigate three things to bring out the vote: Proportional Representation, Compulsory voting and Senate reform/abolition.
Proportional Representation would allocate seats according to the share of the overall popular vote each party received. There are formulae that also guarantee local representation and room for independents (see New Zealand's Mixed-Member proportional system).
Compulsory voting, as in Australia, would ensure that many more Canadians voted. Australian voter turnout rates are in the high 90s percentage wise, and Australia has one of the world's strongest democracies. Australia is probably the society with the most similarities to Canada on Earth, so an examination of this practise is worthwhile.
Senate reform is also essential, either through electing members or just getting rid of the chamber altogether. Canada's provinces all function democratically with unicameral legislatures, why should Parliament be any different? The current situation is wasteful and only provides a retirement home for the good old boys of the party in power.
Anyway, 41% of Canada's people have eschewed a responsibility of citizenship and should really examine their conscience. If you don't feel you need to vote, please pay for your doctor and give back your passport. Thanks.
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